MotoGP: Could 2020 Be Marc Marquez’ Toughest Season Yet?

  • Jan 11, 2020
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The Spaniard will be hoping for a record-equalling 7th MotoGP Championship win this year, but there are a few others who’d like to have a say

Change is the only constant. Hunt or be hunted. If you ain’t first, you’re last.

Yes, all tired old clichés. But in order for anything to grow into a cliché, it has to be substantiated with truth in the first place. And these clichés all hold true in MotoGP, perhaps more than anywhere else. But the previous 4 MotoGP World Championships have gone to Marc Marquez, and he’s got his name on 6 of the last 7. On the face of it, not a lot of change has taken place, and not a lot of hunting has gone on either. Andrea Dovizioso has finished runner-up to Marquez for the last 3 seasons, and more worryingly, the gap has only grown with time.

The 2017 championship went down to the wire, and Dovi ended up just 37 points behind Marquez at the end of it. The gap more than doubled to 76 points the following year, and the 2019 championship saw the Repsol Honda man a mammoth 151 points clear of the rest. Don’t expect that trend to continue into this year, though.

Iker Lecuona joins the MotoGP grid this year, riding for the Tech3 KTM squad. We’ll forgive you if you’ve never heard of him -- he only made his debut in the world championships in 2016, filling in for the injured Dominique Aegerter in Moto2. Now don’t worry, I haven’t lost my marbles. I’m not touting Lecuona as the man to beat Marquez in 2020. Heck, his Moto2 trophy cabinet only houses a couple of items. The only thing that makes him noteworthy in MotoGP (at least so far), is his date of birth. Born on January 6, 2000, Lecuona is the first MotoGP rider born in the 2000s. He represents a new breed of racers that have grown up studying Marc Marquez and his riding style.

Another one of this breed is Fabio Quartararo. At a tender 20-years-old, he is 6 years Marquez’ junior, and the man most likely to hamper the Spaniard’s championship challenge in 2020. His rise through the ranks has been tumultuous, but his 2019 season was nothing short of jaw-dropping. The Frenchman came agonisingly close to victory on multiple occasions in 2019, getting pipped on the last lap at both Misano and Buriram. Pole position in just his 4th race, 3 more poles over the rest of the year, and 7 podiums in 2019 - the same number as Maverick Viñales. He might have even picked up a couple more if his bike hadn’t failed him at Jerez and he hadn’t become collateral damage in Dovi’s crash at Silverstone.

This feat is even more remarkable when you consider the surrounding circumstances - a MotoGP debutant aboard a satellite motorcycle run by an all-new team in just its first year in MotoGP. A Petronas-sponsored satellite Yamaha with a rev limit 500rpm lower than that of the factory boys, for most of the season. Doesn’t sound like much, but considering that even the Monster Energy Yamahas suffered from a severe lack of top end grunt, any extra handicap is exponentially detrimental. A lot of keyboard warriors are already asking for the old man in the Monster garage to hang up his leathers and make way for Fabio, and somewhat rightfully so. On the basis of their 2019 performances alone, it’s quite obvious that Quartararo deserves that factory seat more than Rossi does, but things are seldom that simple.

Even aboard the Petronas Yamaha for 2020, Fabio is tipped to be a championship contender. But is there merit to this? Well, Yamaha has been wise enough to give Quartararo an ‘A-spec’ bike for 2020, meaning that he will start the season on the same spec of bike as the factory squad. The latest and greatest hardware underneath him could be what he needs to finally triumph over Marquez on a Sunday. Having now visited every track on the calendar aboard a MotoGP bike and with a year of experience under his belt, it also shouldn’t take him as long to set up the bike and get up to speed on any given weekend this year. His biggest competition outside of Marquez, though, could come from within the Iwata fold itself.

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Big changes are afoot in the Monster Energy Yamaha team - a sizeable restructuring operation has been in process for a while now. The changes are now beginning to bear fruit, with the Japanese manufacturer finally starting to find its way back towards the sharp end of MotoGP. From whatever little we’ve seen on the early-2020 prototypes at the Valencia and Jerez tests, the bike seems to be a significant evolution of the current machine. The engineers back in Japan will be working hard over the winter to solve the top-end power and rear tyre wear issues that have plagued the M1 for a couple of years now.

A resurgent Maverick Viñales picked up 3 podiums and a race win in the second half of the season, as well as a couple of fourth places. Valentino Rossi has changed crew chiefs in an attempt to reinvigorate his side of the garage. With the right bike underneath them, the two factory Yamaha boys could well be in with a shot at the championship this year.

So what about the man who’s finished runner up all these years? Well, Dovi will continue doing what he has been doing since he joined Ducati - asking the Italian manufacturer for a bike that turns better, especially in the middle of the corner, once the brakes have been released. Maybe 2020 will finally be the year that Ducati gives him a bike he’s completely happy with.

But Dovi has a larger problem on his hands: The wily old Italian is a master of tyre management, which is why he came so close to winning the championship in 2017, when the Michelins were still rather soft and needed some looking after during races. Over the last few years, though, the French tyre manufacturer has worked hard on both rubber compounds and carcass construction, resulting in tyres that allow you to ride pretty much flat out from lights to flag (barring exceptionally abrasive tracks). This process will only continue in 2020, resulting in even more durable tyres, so perhaps Dovi will have to come up with something more if he wants to put his name on the title.

Dovi’s abdication of the challenger role would leave a void that needs to be filled. This void could well be filled by the smallest of the Japanese manufacturers in MotoGP. The Suzuki GSX-RR in the hands of Alex Rins has performed well in 2019. On Sundays. Every now and then. Unfortunately, the Spaniard’s form was a little too mercurial for a solid championship challenge, and some of his more mediocre Saturday performances left him paying the price the following day. His two victories in 2019 put him on par with Maverick Viñales but he only managed one more podium throughout the season. If Rins and Suzuki can sort out their qualifying woes over the winter, the 24-year-old could well find himself in with a shot at the championship in 2020.

Marquez has managed to defend his title on 4 occasions thus far, but judging by the length of this story, he’s going to have to fend off more competition than ever in 2020. The Spaniard could well be facing his toughest year yet in the premier class, which is excellent news if you’re a neutral.

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